Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.663262 3.655822 5.075669 7.331162 1.097691e+01 16.937267 2.812905e+01
2025-03-09 1.761175 2.788833 4.571726 8.162764 1.602588e+01 34.994597 9.626396e+01
2025-03-16 1.230116 2.177616 4.100918 8.880193 2.299218e+01 76.076493 4.531879e+02
2025-03-23 0.919805 1.794587 3.841767 10.089347 3.566532e+01 207.708896 5.915841e+03
2025-03-30 0.701430 1.485282 3.561989 11.247004 5.566916e+01 705.435245 5.779380e+06
2025-04-06 0.513600 1.150885 2.995154 10.892233 7.202814e+01 2204.940349 NaN
2025-04-13 0.378781 0.885420 2.453794 10.001338 8.557826e+01 7560.523355 NaN
2025-04-20 0.307986 0.758277 2.275155 10.788656 1.352124e+02 162329.280945 NaN
2025-04-27 0.264144 0.687403 2.251596 12.750893 2.686172e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.230959 0.633584 2.262449 15.438961 6.275611e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.197591 0.563838 2.151821 17.102038 1.340045e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.163552 0.477352 1.893866 16.516594 2.075741e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.132701 0.393376 1.603569 14.948293 2.756371e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.116135 0.355719 1.536594 16.604632 8.608185e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.101682 0.320284 1.455324 18.003533 3.412669e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.091038 0.295687 1.421746 20.613352 4.568528e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.081558 0.272068 1.375631 23.133893 3.213347e+08 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.070571 0.237991 1.228570 22.012375 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.060657 0.205509 1.070361 19.713280 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.055022 0.190136 1.028844 21.389205 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.051400 0.182527 1.042082 25.894608 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.048423 0.176830 1.067773 32.336067 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.044746 0.166450 1.043763 36.370788 NaN NaN NaN